Probably in a few years can be completed the first mission with astronauts on Mars . Under this assumption, according to research by a group of mathematicians, these early “settlers” could experience a 1-megaton event , studies suggest good chance of an asteroid impact.
And is that asteroid impacts are among the most feared among natural disasters. Therefore the risk estimate would mean for the Earth is an important task. A method whose study is to observe the number of hits in the past and use these as a guide to the future.
A work certainly difficult as the size distribution of the craters we see today not only depend on the impact velocity in the past, but also the speed in which they have been disappearing through processes such as erosion or changes tectonic.
Still, many researchers have measured the size distribution of craters and have reached an estimated probability of impact in the future. Based on these studies, William Bruckman and colleagues from the University of Puerto Rico have conducted an analysis deriving studying the possibilities of impact on Mars.
The conclusion we have reached is that astronauts visiting Mars in a few years (from three) are likely to be witnesses of significant asteroid impact , both as 1 megaton. According to him, based on mathematical models and evidence from the past, have been a model describing the impact velocity on Earth through existing data.
A model that suggests that events such as occurred in 1908 in Tunguska, which saw an explosion similar to that of a thermonuclear weapon levada power (about 10 megatons) attributed to a comet should be given once a century, and small 1 megaton event once every 15 years. According to investigators, both predictions are consistent with crater counts and most estimates.
Their study has not been there. Bruckman explains that the model is applicable to Mars, where the impact factors tend to be higher due to its proximity to the asteroid belt. According to their research, Mars is a megaton event every three years. To Bruckman:
We hope that visitors to Mars a few years pass during a mission will have a high probability of witnessing a meteorite impact of 1 megaton. These impacts can cause more damage to the surface of Mars than on Earth, because the density of the Martian atmosphere is much lower.
The actual experience of the probes and rovers to Mars have come so far have not seen an impact on their missions. Reason for the study of researchers and their predictions will require further analysis.